2025 U.S. Holiday Online Sales Set to Reach $253.4 Billion
Adobe Analytics projects the U.S. online holiday shopping season will generate $253.4 billion in sales this year, marking a 5.3% increase compared to 2024. This forecast draws on data from over one trillion visits to retail websites, covering 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories. The report highlights Cyber Monday as the largest shopping day, expected to hit $14.2 billion in sales, up 6.3% year-over-year. Black Friday sales are forecasted to rise 8.3% to $11.7 billion, while Thanksgiving Day online spending is projected at $6.4 billion, reflecting an earlier start to holiday shopping.
Adobe predicts a dramatic 520% year-over-year increase in AI-assisted shopping traffic during the 2025 holiday season, with peak activity anticipated in the ten days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows an extraordinary 1,300% surge recorded in 2024. A consumer survey of 5,000 U.S. shoppers reveals that 53% intend to use AI tools for product research, while 40% will rely on AI for personalized recommendations, 36% for deal discovery, and 30% for gift ideas. AI usage is expected to be most prevalent in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.
Mobile devices are projected to drive a record 56.1% of online holiday transactions in 2025, continuing the upward trend from 54.5% in 2024 and 51.1% in 2023. The proliferation of larger smartphone screens is likely facilitating this sustained growth in mobile commerce.
Buy Now, Pay Later Services Fuel $20.2 Billion in Holiday Spending
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options are expected to contribute $20.2 billion in online holiday sales, an 11% increase from 2024. Cyber Monday alone may see BNPL transactions reach $1.04 billion, marking a 5% year-over-year rise.
Social media platforms will play a pivotal role in holiday e-commerce, with advertising expected to generate a 51% increase in online revenue year-over-year, a substantial jump from the 5% growth recorded in 2024.
Key Product Categories Leading Holiday Spending
- Electronics: $57.5 billion (up 4% YoY)
- Apparel: $47.6 billion (up 4.4% YoY)
- Furniture: $31.1 billion (up 6.5% YoY)
FinOracleAI — Market View
Adobe’s 2025 holiday shopping forecast underscores a robust growth trajectory for U.S. e-commerce, driven predominantly by the integration of AI technologies, mobile commerce expansion, and evolving payment options such as BNPL.
- Opportunities: Enhanced consumer engagement through AI-powered personalization and recommendations; increased mobile shopping convenience; growth in flexible payment solutions boosting average order values.
- Risks: Overreliance on AI may raise privacy and data security concerns; mobile shopping growth may plateau if device innovation slows; BNPL expansion could face regulatory scrutiny impacting user adoption.
Impact: The forecasted surge in AI-assisted shopping and mobile transactions signals transformative shifts in consumer behavior and retailer strategies, positioning the 2025 holiday season as a pivotal moment for digital commerce innovation and growth.
