Worker Confidence in Job Mobility Hits Historic Low
Confidence among U.S. workers in their ability to secure new employment after losing their current job has plunged to the lowest level since the New York Federal Reserve began tracking this metric in 2013. According to the Fed’s August Survey of Consumer Expectations, respondents indicated a 44.9% probability of finding a new job, marking a 5.8 percentage point drop from July.
Reversal of the Great Resignation Trend
This decline underscores a marked shift from the robust labor market of 2021-22, when millions of workers voluntarily left their jobs with optimism about future opportunities. At its peak, approximately 4.5 million workers quit monthly, compared to 3.2 million in July 2025 — a figure that has also declined over 5% year-over-year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data.
Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, commented, “Consumers are feeling down about job-finding opportunities, and those feelings are wholly appropriate. It’s very difficult to find work right now. Employers aren’t hiring much, so workers are stuck job-hugging, clinging to their current jobs because the market isn’t favorable to job seekers.”
Labor Market Dynamics and Hiring Slowdown
During the COVID-19 pandemic, a labor supply-demand imbalance contributed to elevated job mobility, with more than two open positions per worker. However, the market has since stagnated. While widespread layoffs have not materialized, hiring has decelerated sharply, leading to a surplus of workers relative to job openings—a condition not seen since before the pandemic.
Correspondingly, the Fed survey noted that the likelihood of voluntarily quitting a job over the next year remained steady at 18.9%, down marginally by 0.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, expectations that the unemployment rate will rise within the next year increased to 39.1%, up 1.7 percentage points from July and above the 12-month average.
Recent Employment Data Reinforce Labor Market Weakness
The latest BLS report for August revealed a disappointing addition of just 22,000 jobs, far below the forecasted 75,000. Furthermore, June’s payroll figures were revised down to a loss of 13,000 jobs—the first monthly decline since December 2020. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, while a broader measure encompassing discouraged and underemployed workers climbed to 8.1%, both reaching their highest levels since October 2021.
Outlook for Federal Reserve Policy
Given these labor market headwinds, market participants widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will enact its first interest rate cut since December 2024 at the upcoming September 17 policy meeting. The move would aim to support economic growth amid mounting signs of labor market softening and increased economic uncertainty.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The pronounced decline in worker confidence and weak payroll data signal a cooling labor market, which is likely to weigh on consumer spending and overall economic momentum in the near term. The risk of prolonged hiring stagnation and rising unemployment expectations may pressure corporate earnings and dampen market sentiment. Investors should closely monitor upcoming Fed decisions and labor market reports for signals of policy easing and stabilization.
Impact: negative
