US Online Holiday Spending Growth Slows to 5.3%
Online holiday spending in the United States is forecast to increase by 5.3% year-over-year, reaching $253.4 billion, according to a report released Monday by Adobe Analytics. This growth rate marks a slowdown compared to the 8.7% rise recorded during the 2024 holiday season from November 1 to December 31.
Adobe’s data, which monitors over one trillion visits to U.S. retail websites across 18 product categories, highlights a shifting consumer landscape where shoppers are increasingly hunting for discounts and leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) tools to aid their purchasing decisions.
Contextualizing Growth Amid Economic Uncertainty
Despite the projected increase, the 5.3% growth falls short of the 10-year average annual growth rate of approximately 13%. The decade-long average is notably skewed by the extraordinary 32% surge in 2020 when pandemic restrictions drove a massive shift to online shopping.
“The holiday season is one of the areas where consumers feel a strong imperative to secure the goods they need,” said Vivek Pandya, Adobe’s Director of Digital Insights. “We’re seeing them willing to spend and capitalize on these sales moments despite broader economic challenges.”
Pandya also noted that consumers are adopting stockpiling behaviors amid concerns about price volatility, which may help sustain spending levels during the holiday period.
Broader Retail Landscape and Consumer Sentiment
While Adobe’s figures focus exclusively on e-commerce, they represent roughly one-quarter of total holiday retail sales. The overall retail outlook is more cautious, with Bain & Company projecting a 4% year-over-year increase in total holiday spending across physical stores and online, below the 10-year average growth rate of 5.2%.
Consumer surveys reflect this tempered sentiment. A PwC study conducted mid-year with 4,000 U.S. respondents indicates planned holiday spending will decline by approximately 5%, averaging $1,552 per consumer. Notably, Gen Z consumers anticipate reducing their expenditures by 23% compared to last year.
Holiday Spending Trends and Discount Strategies
Adobe expects Cyber Week—from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—to remain the peak spending interval, accounting for 17.2% ($43.7 billion) of total online holiday sales, consistent with last year’s 17% share.
Discount levels are predicted to be broadly stable but slightly diminished in some categories. Electronics discounts, for instance, are expected to peak at 28% off, down from 30.1% last year. Similarly, toy discounts may reach 27%, compared to 28% previously.
Mobile Devices and AI Tools Drive Consumer Behavior
Mobile shopping continues to surge, with Adobe projecting that 56.1% of online holiday sales will occur via mobile devices, a significant increase from 40% during the 2020 holiday season.
Additionally, AI-powered chatbots and generative AI search tools are playing an expanding role in the shopping experience. Adobe anticipates AI-driven traffic to grow by 520% year-over-year, especially in the critical days leading up to Thanksgiving, as consumers seek personalized recommendations and product research assistance.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The 2025 holiday season’s online spending growth reflects a consumer market adapting to economic pressures through selective spending, discount hunting, and technology adoption. While growth slows relative to recent years, it remains robust given inflationary and confidence headwinds.
- Opportunities: Expansion of AI tools enhances personalized shopping experiences, potentially increasing conversion rates.
- Risks: Economic uncertainty and reduced discretionary budgets, especially among younger consumers, may constrain overall retail growth.
- Technology Shift: Mobile commerce dominance underscores the need for optimized mobile retail platforms.
- Discount Sensitivity: Slightly reduced discounting may moderate consumer urgency but maintain margins for retailers.
- Cyber Week Importance: Concentrated spending during Cyber Week remains critical for revenue capture.
Impact: The slower but steady growth in online holiday spending signals cautious consumer optimism supported by technology-driven shopping behaviors. Retailers should prioritize mobile and AI engagement strategies to maximize holiday season performance.
