U.S. Online Holiday Spending Growth to Moderate in 2025
Online holiday spending in the United States is projected to increase by 5.3% year over year, reaching $253.4 billion during the 2025 season, according to a recent Adobe Analytics report. This growth rate marks a slowdown compared to the 8.7% increase recorded over the same period last year.
Adobe’s comprehensive data tracks over one trillion visits to retail websites, monitoring 100 million unique products across 18 categories, offering a broad view of consumer behavior during the critical holiday shopping period.
Contextualizing the Growth Rate
The 5.3% growth forecast falls below the decade-long average annual online holiday sales growth of approximately 13%. The previous years’ averages were buoyed by a remarkable 32% jump in 2020, driven by pandemic-induced shifts towards online shopping.
Despite the deceleration, Adobe’s Director of Digital Insights, Vivek Pandya, emphasizes that consumers remain motivated to engage in holiday shopping, capitalizing on discounts amid economic uncertainties.
“The holiday season is one of the areas where consumers feel a strong drive to acquire the goods they need. We’re seeing willingness to spend and take advantage of sales moments,” said Pandya.
Consumer Behavior and Spending Patterns
Consumers are also adopting stockpiling habits, buying in anticipation of potential price volatility, which may help stabilize overall spending despite slower growth.
However, it is important to note that Adobe’s figures represent only e-commerce transactions, which account for roughly one-quarter of total holiday sales. Broader retail forecasts, including both online and in-store sales, suggest more moderate growth.
Consulting firm Bain & Company projects holiday spending growth across all retail channels at 4%, down from the 10-year average of 5.2%. Meanwhile, a PwC survey of 4,000 U.S. consumers indicates an average planned holiday expenditure of $1,552, about 5% less than last year, with Gen Z consumers anticipating a 23% reduction in spending.
Cyber Week Remains the Focal Point
Cyber Week, spanning Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to generate 17.2% of total online holiday sales — approximately $43.7 billion — consistent with last year’s share.
Discounting levels are anticipated to remain stable compared to 2024, though slight declines are expected in some categories. For instance, electronics discounts are forecast to peak at 28%, down from 30.1% last year, while toy discounts may reach 27%, compared to 28% previously.
Mobile Shopping and AI Integration Surge
Mobile devices are rapidly becoming the dominant platform for online holiday shopping, expected to account for 56.1% of online sales this season. This is a significant increase from 40% during the 2020 holiday season.
Additionally, generative AI-powered chatbots and browsers are playing an increasingly pivotal role in helping consumers research and select gifts. Adobe anticipates AI-driven traffic to increase by 520% year over year, with peak activity occurring just before Thanksgiving.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The 2025 U.S. online holiday shopping season reflects a maturing market with slower growth but continued robust consumer engagement fueled by discounts and technological innovation.
While overall growth softens, the integration of AI tools and the shift toward mobile commerce represent significant structural changes that could shape future retail dynamics.
- Opportunities: Expansion of AI-driven shopping assistance enhances consumer experience and potentially increases conversion rates.
- Opportunities: Mobile commerce growth offers retailers new avenues for targeted marketing and streamlined purchasing.
- Risks: Economic uncertainty and reduced consumer confidence may constrain discretionary spending.
- Risks: Slightly weaker discounting in key categories could dampen impulse purchases.
Impact: Moderate growth in online holiday sales alongside technological adoption signals steady sector resilience, though broader economic factors warrant cautious optimism.
