The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->
Contents
Market and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewPolitical Theater Clouds NegotiationsContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewPolitical Theater Clouds NegotiationsContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewLimited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key IssuesPolitical Theater Clouds NegotiationsContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewLimited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key IssuesPolitical Theater Clouds NegotiationsContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewDivergent Views on TikTok’s DivestitureLimited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key IssuesPolitical Theater Clouds NegotiationsContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewDivergent Views on TikTok’s DivestitureLimited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key IssuesPolitical Theater Clouds NegotiationsContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market ViewTikTok Overshadows US-China Trade NegotiationsDivergent Views on TikTok’s DivestitureLimited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key IssuesPolitical Theater Clouds NegotiationsContinued Diplomatic Engagement Despite TensionsMarket and Industry UpdatesFinOracleAI — Market View
- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
“China is taking time to negotiate when the US is keen to have deals,” noted Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
Political Theater Clouds Negotiations
Both sides have engaged in a calculated display of diplomacy and media messaging, complicating the path to a deal. Trump’s announcement of a call with Xi preceded official Chinese confirmation, while China timed its tech and military announcements to coincide with national cybersecurity events and trade talks. !-- wp:paragraph --> These actions reveal a broader pattern of political signaling that prioritizes domestic optics and strategic positioning over immediate compromise. !-- wp:paragraph -->Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
“China is taking time to negotiate when the US is keen to have deals,” noted Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
Political Theater Clouds Negotiations
Both sides have engaged in a calculated display of diplomacy and media messaging, complicating the path to a deal. Trump’s announcement of a call with Xi preceded official Chinese confirmation, while China timed its tech and military announcements to coincide with national cybersecurity events and trade talks. !-- wp:paragraph --> These actions reveal a broader pattern of political signaling that prioritizes domestic optics and strategic positioning over immediate compromise. !-- wp:paragraph -->Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
Limited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key Issues
Beyond TikTok, discussions on tariffs, fentanyl control, and semiconductor trade have seen little advancement. China’s lack of engagement on future meetings contrasts with the US’s eagerness to finalize deals, reflecting a strategic delay by Beijing. !-- wp:paragraph --> China’s recent moves, including new investigations into US chipmakers and public criticism of Nvidia for monopolistic behavior, further signal Beijing’s intent to assert its technological sovereignty amid rising geopolitical tensions. !-- wp:paragraph -->“China is taking time to negotiate when the US is keen to have deals,” noted Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
Political Theater Clouds Negotiations
Both sides have engaged in a calculated display of diplomacy and media messaging, complicating the path to a deal. Trump’s announcement of a call with Xi preceded official Chinese confirmation, while China timed its tech and military announcements to coincide with national cybersecurity events and trade talks. !-- wp:paragraph --> These actions reveal a broader pattern of political signaling that prioritizes domestic optics and strategic positioning over immediate compromise. !-- wp:paragraph -->Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
“Honestly, I really don’t see why the Chinese side would have any interest at all in divesting the … U.S. TikTok,” said Gary Dvorchak, Managing Director of Blueshirt Group. “They’re losing control of one of the crown jewels of China’s technology.” This divergence underscores the broader mistrust between the two countries, particularly around technology and data security, complicating trade negotiations beyond traditional tariff and market access issues.
!-- wp:paragraph -->Limited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key Issues
Beyond TikTok, discussions on tariffs, fentanyl control, and semiconductor trade have seen little advancement. China’s lack of engagement on future meetings contrasts with the US’s eagerness to finalize deals, reflecting a strategic delay by Beijing. !-- wp:paragraph --> China’s recent moves, including new investigations into US chipmakers and public criticism of Nvidia for monopolistic behavior, further signal Beijing’s intent to assert its technological sovereignty amid rising geopolitical tensions. !-- wp:paragraph -->“China is taking time to negotiate when the US is keen to have deals,” noted Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
Political Theater Clouds Negotiations
Both sides have engaged in a calculated display of diplomacy and media messaging, complicating the path to a deal. Trump’s announcement of a call with Xi preceded official Chinese confirmation, while China timed its tech and military announcements to coincide with national cybersecurity events and trade talks. !-- wp:paragraph --> These actions reveal a broader pattern of political signaling that prioritizes domestic optics and strategic positioning over immediate compromise. !-- wp:paragraph -->Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
Divergent Views on TikTok’s Divestiture
The core of the current impasse lies in the US demand for ByteDance to divest its TikTok operations in the United States. Beijing has proposed a “solution that complies with China’s laws and regulations,” emphasizing a technology licensing deal rather than a full divestiture. Conversely, US officials have outlined detailed conditions, including investor restrictions and board oversight, reflecting a much firmer stance. !-- wp:paragraph -->“Honestly, I really don’t see why the Chinese side would have any interest at all in divesting the … U.S. TikTok,” said Gary Dvorchak, Managing Director of Blueshirt Group. “They’re losing control of one of the crown jewels of China’s technology.” This divergence underscores the broader mistrust between the two countries, particularly around technology and data security, complicating trade negotiations beyond traditional tariff and market access issues.
!-- wp:paragraph -->Limited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key Issues
Beyond TikTok, discussions on tariffs, fentanyl control, and semiconductor trade have seen little advancement. China’s lack of engagement on future meetings contrasts with the US’s eagerness to finalize deals, reflecting a strategic delay by Beijing. !-- wp:paragraph --> China’s recent moves, including new investigations into US chipmakers and public criticism of Nvidia for monopolistic behavior, further signal Beijing’s intent to assert its technological sovereignty amid rising geopolitical tensions. !-- wp:paragraph -->“China is taking time to negotiate when the US is keen to have deals,” noted Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
Political Theater Clouds Negotiations
Both sides have engaged in a calculated display of diplomacy and media messaging, complicating the path to a deal. Trump’s announcement of a call with Xi preceded official Chinese confirmation, while China timed its tech and military announcements to coincide with national cybersecurity events and trade talks. !-- wp:paragraph --> These actions reveal a broader pattern of political signaling that prioritizes domestic optics and strategic positioning over immediate compromise. !-- wp:paragraph -->Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
Divergent Views on TikTok’s Divestiture
The core of the current impasse lies in the US demand for ByteDance to divest its TikTok operations in the United States. Beijing has proposed a “solution that complies with China’s laws and regulations,” emphasizing a technology licensing deal rather than a full divestiture. Conversely, US officials have outlined detailed conditions, including investor restrictions and board oversight, reflecting a much firmer stance. !-- wp:paragraph -->“Honestly, I really don’t see why the Chinese side would have any interest at all in divesting the … U.S. TikTok,” said Gary Dvorchak, Managing Director of Blueshirt Group. “They’re losing control of one of the crown jewels of China’s technology.” This divergence underscores the broader mistrust between the two countries, particularly around technology and data security, complicating trade negotiations beyond traditional tariff and market access issues.
!-- wp:paragraph -->Limited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key Issues
Beyond TikTok, discussions on tariffs, fentanyl control, and semiconductor trade have seen little advancement. China’s lack of engagement on future meetings contrasts with the US’s eagerness to finalize deals, reflecting a strategic delay by Beijing. !-- wp:paragraph --> China’s recent moves, including new investigations into US chipmakers and public criticism of Nvidia for monopolistic behavior, further signal Beijing’s intent to assert its technological sovereignty amid rising geopolitical tensions. !-- wp:paragraph -->“China is taking time to negotiate when the US is keen to have deals,” noted Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
Political Theater Clouds Negotiations
Both sides have engaged in a calculated display of diplomacy and media messaging, complicating the path to a deal. Trump’s announcement of a call with Xi preceded official Chinese confirmation, while China timed its tech and military announcements to coincide with national cybersecurity events and trade talks. !-- wp:paragraph --> These actions reveal a broader pattern of political signaling that prioritizes domestic optics and strategic positioning over immediate compromise. !-- wp:paragraph -->Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
TikTok Overshadows US-China Trade Negotiations
The latest round of US-China trade talks has been overshadowed by the contentious issue of TikTok’s ownership, casting doubt on the prospects for a comprehensive trade agreement. While many in the business community had hoped for significant progress, the discussions revealed a widening gap between the two sides, particularly over the future of TikTok’s US operations and ByteDance’s role. !-- wp:paragraph --> China’s official statements have been notably silent on upcoming meetings, even after US President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit next month. This silence signals a cautious and calculated approach from Beijing amid the delicate negotiations. !-- wp:paragraph -->Divergent Views on TikTok’s Divestiture
The core of the current impasse lies in the US demand for ByteDance to divest its TikTok operations in the United States. Beijing has proposed a “solution that complies with China’s laws and regulations,” emphasizing a technology licensing deal rather than a full divestiture. Conversely, US officials have outlined detailed conditions, including investor restrictions and board oversight, reflecting a much firmer stance. !-- wp:paragraph -->“Honestly, I really don’t see why the Chinese side would have any interest at all in divesting the … U.S. TikTok,” said Gary Dvorchak, Managing Director of Blueshirt Group. “They’re losing control of one of the crown jewels of China’s technology.” This divergence underscores the broader mistrust between the two countries, particularly around technology and data security, complicating trade negotiations beyond traditional tariff and market access issues.
!-- wp:paragraph -->Limited Progress on Tariffs and Other Key Issues
Beyond TikTok, discussions on tariffs, fentanyl control, and semiconductor trade have seen little advancement. China’s lack of engagement on future meetings contrasts with the US’s eagerness to finalize deals, reflecting a strategic delay by Beijing. !-- wp:paragraph --> China’s recent moves, including new investigations into US chipmakers and public criticism of Nvidia for monopolistic behavior, further signal Beijing’s intent to assert its technological sovereignty amid rising geopolitical tensions. !-- wp:paragraph -->“China is taking time to negotiate when the US is keen to have deals,” noted Winston Ma, adjunct professor at NYU School of Law.
Political Theater Clouds Negotiations
Both sides have engaged in a calculated display of diplomacy and media messaging, complicating the path to a deal. Trump’s announcement of a call with Xi preceded official Chinese confirmation, while China timed its tech and military announcements to coincide with national cybersecurity events and trade talks. !-- wp:paragraph --> These actions reveal a broader pattern of political signaling that prioritizes domestic optics and strategic positioning over immediate compromise. !-- wp:paragraph -->Continued Diplomatic Engagement Despite Tensions
Despite the stalemate, diplomatic channels remain open. A bipartisan delegation of US House Representatives recently visited China—the first since 2019—underscoring the importance both nations place on maintaining dialogue amid strained relations. !-- wp:paragraph --> US Representative Adam Smith, who led the delegation, confirmed that TikTok was discussed but without delving into technical specifics, suggesting ongoing efforts to find common ground. !-- wp:paragraph -->Market and Industry Updates
- Apple iPhone 17 demand rises in China due to new features, despite the iPhone Air’s delayed launch tied to eSIM technology.
- US visa policy changes introduce uncertainty for Chinese nationals amid new fees on H-1B visa applicants.
- ByteDance valuation increases to an estimated $400 billion following tentative US-China framework agreements on TikTok.
- Chinese stocks rebound with Alibaba shares rising over 6% after CEO Eddie Wu announced increased AI investment.
“Investors are realizing, ‘I was told China is uninvestable, and Alibaba has gone up 100%. It’s one of the biggest companies in the world. Maybe I should be looking back at that.'” — Mark Tinker, CIO of Toscafund Hong KongFinOracleAI — Market View
The ongoing US-China trade discussions highlight the complexity of integrating technology security concerns with traditional trade issues. TikTok has become a symbolic and practical battleground, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions that impede swift resolution. !-- wp:paragraph -->- Opportunities: Continued diplomatic engagement may pave the way for incremental agreements on technology licensing and tariff reductions.
- Risks: Prolonged standoffs over TikTok and semiconductor policies could escalate into broader decoupling, impacting global supply chains and investor confidence.
- Market impact: Technology stocks remain sensitive to policy signals, while Chinese equities may benefit from increased AI investments and renewed investor interest.
