Sanae Takaichi Leads Japan’s Leadership Race Amid Ishiba’s Resignation

Prime Minister Ishiba Steps Down Amid Political and Economic Pressures

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation on September 8, 2025, taking responsibility for a series of election defeats suffered by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito. His departure coincides with mounting economic challenges, including a cost-of-living crisis marked by the sharpest increase in rice prices in over five decades.

Ishiba highlighted the recent completion of a key trade agreement with the United States, which established a 15% baseline tariff on Japanese exports, including automobiles, as a milestone during his tenure. He expressed a desire to pass leadership to the next generation following this achievement.

Leadership Contest Opens With Takaichi and Koizumi Emerging as Front-Runners

The race to succeed Ishiba has drawn significant attention, with former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi and current agriculture minister Shinjiro Koizumi emerging as the primary contenders. Neither has formally declared candidacy, but political analysts, including Eurasia Group, anticipate both will enter the contest.

A recent Nikkei opinion poll places Takaichi narrowly ahead with 23% support, compared to Koizumi’s 22%. If elected, Takaichi would make history as Japan’s first female prime minister, a milestone that some experts argue is overdue.

Public Readiness for a Female Prime Minister

Tomohiko Taniguchi, former special adviser to the cabinet under the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, told CNBC that Japanese voters are more prepared for a female leader than often assumed. He cited increased female labor participation in Japan, which stands at approximately 85% among women aged 25 to 54, surpassing the 78% rate in the United States, based on OECD data.

Takaichi’s Policy Stance and Political Profile

Sanae Takaichi is widely regarded as a staunch supporter of Abenomics, the economic policies championed by former Prime Minister Abe that emphasize monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms. Eurasia Group notes her prior criticism of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes and her advocacy for expanded fiscal stimulus.

She has also expressed support for revising Japan’s pacifist constitution, particularly Article 9, which renounces the right to wage war. Takaichi’s previous leadership bid last year saw her lead the first round before narrowly losing to Ishiba in the runoff.

Jesper Koll, expert director at Monex Group, describes Takaichi as having strong policy ideas backed by a capable team within the LDP and bureaucracy. While some within the party may view her positions as radical, her thoroughness and determination have earned respect among LDP elites.

Koizumi’s Approach and Political Appeal

In contrast, Shinjiro Koizumi maintains a lower profile on policy issues but gained recognition for his management of the recent rice price crisis as agriculture minister. Koll characterizes Koizumi as a safer, less controversial choice who poses less risk to entrenched party interests, particularly in agricultural policy.

Koizumi’s ability to forge compromises with opposition parties could be advantageous given the LDP’s loss of majority in the Lower House, where the prime minister is ultimately selected.

Political Landscape and Uncertainties Ahead

The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition currently holds 220 seats in the 465-seat Lower House, falling short of a majority. This dynamic introduces the possibility—though considered unlikely by Eurasia analysts—that a united opposition could influence the selection of the next prime minister.

The upcoming LDP leadership election will be closely watched as a bellwether for Japan’s political direction amid economic pressures and evolving domestic expectations, including the potential for a historic female prime minister.