Manhattan Condo Market Shows Flat Prices Amid Rising Losses
More than one-third of Manhattan condominium apartments sold between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss, according to a recent analysis by Brown Harris Stevens. This data challenges the prevailing narrative of Manhattan’s real estate market as a consistently lucrative investment, revealing a decade-long stagnation in condo prices despite frequent reports of record-breaking sales. The median price per square foot for Manhattan condos has remained essentially unchanged over the past ten years. When accounting for inflation, transaction costs, and renovations, the share of condo sellers incurring losses is likely even higher, industry experts note.
Price Trends and Buyer Cohorts
The report highlights significant variation in returns based on the timing of purchase. Owners who acquired condos before 2010 have realized median gains between 29% and 45% when selling in the past year. This cohort benefited from post-financial crisis price appreciation that peaked around 2016. Buyers who purchased between 2011 and 2015 saw modest gains averaging approximately 11%. Conversely, those who bought condos after 2016 faced substantial losses, with half of the 2016-2020 cohort selling at a loss. Buyers from 2021 to 2024 saw minimal gains, though some who purchased during the Covid downturn may fare better.
“For the last decade, Manhattan has essentially been moving sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel.
Inflation and Real Returns
Adjusting for inflation significantly impacts the real return on Manhattan condos. Inflation has increased by 36% over the last decade, meaning a nominally flat sale price represents a substantial real loss. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of Columbia Business School’s Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate, noted that while the Case-Shiller national home price index rose 89%, Manhattan condo prices lagged considerably behind.
“If I had invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 and sold it in August 2025 for the same nominal price, I actually lost 36% in real terms,” Van Nieuwerburgh explained.
Underlying Market Dynamics
Several factors have contributed to Manhattan’s stagnant condo prices over the past decade. The 2018 cap on state and local tax deductions, the 2019 rent law, and demographic shifts including migration to Florida during the pandemic have all exerted pressure on demand and pricing. However, Manhattan remains one of the most expensive housing markets in the U.S., with median sales prices around $1.2 million and average prices near $2 million. Notably, the luxury segment—condos priced above $10 million—has defied the broader market trend, consistently delivering double-digit profits regardless of purchase timing. This resilience is attributed to the concentration of wealth, strong stock market performance, and the prevalence of cash buyers, who accounted for two-thirds of transactions in the third quarter.
Current Market Outlook and Buyer Behavior
Despite some sellers incurring losses over the past decade, market experts remain optimistic about Manhattan real estate. Jared Antin, executive director at Brown Harris Stevens, described the market’s stability as a defining feature, emphasizing opportunities for buyers and sellers alike amid the current upswing. However, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming mayoral election and persistently high prices have led many potential buyers to rent instead of purchase. The number of New York City households earning over $1 million annually who rent has more than doubled since 2019. Additionally, signed contracts for high-end apartments priced at $4 million or more declined 39% in September, largely due to limited inventory rather than waning demand.
“There certainly is a downside risk to policy,” said Miller, “but as we’ve seen in the past, those fears are usually overblown.”
FinOracleAI — Market View
Manhattan’s condo market presents a complex landscape characterized by long-term price stagnation and notable disparities across buyer cohorts and price segments. While the luxury market remains robust, the broader condo market has struggled to keep pace with inflation and national home price gains.
- Opportunities: Buyers acquiring properties during market dips, particularly in 2020-2021, may realize gains as prices stabilize.
- Risks: Inflation, transaction costs, and regulatory changes continue to pressure real returns for most condo owners.
- High concentration of cash buyers supports luxury segment resilience despite broader market softness.
- Political uncertainty and limited new supply could temper near-term market activity.
Impact: The prolonged price stagnation and inflation-adjusted losses for many Manhattan condo owners underscore the challenges of real estate investment in high-cost urban markets. However, the luxury segment’s strength and market stability suggest selective opportunities for investors with capital liquidity and long-term horizons.
