Bunge Shares Surge 11% Following Trump’s China Cooking Oil Embargo Threat
Shares of Bunge Global, a leading global soybean processor and cooking oil producer, soared more than 11% on Wednesday. The surge came after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. is considering terminating its business dealings with China related to cooking oil as a retaliatory measure amid ongoing trade disputes. Year to date, Bunge’s stock has gained approximately 18%, buoyed by the potential trade policy shifts and the company’s recent merger activities.
Background on U.S.-China Trade Tensions and Soybean Market
President Trump’s threat follows China’s refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans since May 2025, a key agricultural export for the United States. China, historically the largest buyer of American soybeans, has redirected its purchases to Argentina and Brazil due to the imposition of high U.S. tariffs. China’s exports of used cooking oil reached record highs last year, with the U.S. accounting for 43% of total exports. This dynamic has added complexity to the agricultural trade relationship between the two countries. The escalation of trade tensions has been marked by a series of moves from both sides, including President Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. Additionally, China sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries linked to South Korea’s Hanwha Group, tightening its control over global shipping.
Bunge’s Earnings Outlook and Merger Impact
On the same day as the stock surge, Bunge updated its full-year earnings forecast to reflect its recent merger with grain and oilseeds processor Viterra. The company now expects earnings of $7.30 to $7.60 per share, excluding one-time items. This guidance slightly exceeds analyst expectations, which were set at $7.39 per share according to FactSet. The positive outlook helped reassure investors, mitigating concerns over the heightened trade tensions.
Broader Industry Impact
Other major players in the oilseed processing sector also experienced stock gains following the announcement. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), another leading American oilseed processor, saw its shares rise by 1.5%.
FinOracleAI — Market View
Bunge’s stock rally reflects market optimism on potential U.S. policy shifts that could disrupt Chinese cooking oil exports and benefit domestic producers. The company’s merger with Viterra strengthens its position in global grain and oilseed markets, enhancing its resilience amid trade uncertainties.
- Opportunities: Increased U.S. market share for domestic soybean processors; potential for higher margins due to reduced Chinese competition.
- Risks: Escalation of trade tensions could provoke retaliatory measures impacting broader agricultural exports.
- Market Dynamics: Shifts in global soybean demand and supply chains could create volatility in pricing and trade flows.
- Regulatory Environment: Ongoing tariff and sanction developments remain key variables for market stability.
Impact: Bunge’s share price surge signals positive investor sentiment driven by trade policy developments and strategic merger integration, though heightened geopolitical risks continue to loom.
