XRP Price Struggles to Hold $3 as Selling Pressure Mounts
XRP has encountered significant resistance near the $3 mark, with recent attempts to break above this level proving unsustainable. Technical analysis reveals a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a flat support line and a descending resistance trendline since XRP’s rally to $3.66 multi-year highs. A breakout above this pattern was short-lived, indicating weak bullish momentum.
Failure to firmly reclaim $3, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently resides, increases the likelihood of a decline toward $2.70. Additional support levels to monitor include the 200-day SMA near $2.50 and a potential downside target around $2.06, representing a 31% drop from current prices. Concurrently, a bear flag formation suggests a possible drop to approximately $2.40 if the $3 support fails to hold.
Whale Selling Signals Caution
Onchain metrics highlight that large holders, or whales, have been offloading XRP amid the recent price rally. The Supply Distribution data indicates that entities holding between 1 and 10 million XRP have reduced their holdings to 6.79 billion tokens, a six-week low. Over the past two weeks, these investors have sold more than 160 million XRP, valued at approximately $476 million at current market prices.
This significant sell-off suggests that major investors may be anticipating lower prices ahead, despite potential positive catalysts such as spot ETF approvals and expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, XRP reserves on exchanges have climbed by 665 million tokens, reaching 3.94 billion as of early September, according to Glassnode data. Increased exchange reserves often indicate growing selling pressure and can negatively impact price stability.
Declining Network Activity Undermines Outlook
Network engagement on the XRP Ledger has also deteriorated in recent months. Data from CryptoQuant shows daily active addresses (DAAs) have fallen from a July peak of over 50,000 to roughly 21,000 at present. Similarly, new address creation has dropped from 11,000 daily in early 2025 to about 4,300, signaling waning user adoption and engagement.
Historically, declining network activity correlates with reduced liquidity and diminished buying momentum, often preceding periods of price stagnation or decline. This trend adds another layer of concern for XRP’s near-term price trajectory.
This analysis does not constitute investment advice. Market participants should conduct their own due diligence before making trading decisions.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The combination of technical bearish patterns, significant whale selling, and declining network activity suggests a negative short-term outlook for XRP. The inability to sustain above $3 is a critical resistance failure that could prompt further downside toward the $2.40-$2.00 range. Investors should monitor whale behavior and onchain metrics closely, as any reversal in these trends could alter momentum. Risks include unexpected positive regulatory developments or broader market rallies that might support price recovery.
Impact: negative
