Bitcoin Faces Resistance Amid Significant Whale Selling
Bitcoin (BTC) began the week with an attempt to hold above $112,500, signaling renewed bullish interest. However, market dynamics remain fragile as large holders—whales—have offloaded approximately 114,920 BTC over the past month, marking the heaviest selling since July 2022. This substantial supply influx is likely to restrain Bitcoin’s upward momentum in the near term.
Analysts highlight $100,000 as a critical support level. A prominent trader, ZYN, noted that Bitcoin previously bottomed near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement in Q3 2024 and Q2 2025, suggesting a potential repeat scenario. The trader anticipates a possible 10% decline toward $100,000 before a substantial 50% rally above $150,000, though this remains speculative.
Demand from Bitcoin treasury companies is also waning. Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest institutional holder, acquired only about 7,714 BTC in August, sharply down from 31,466 BTC in July. Other treasury entities similarly reduced purchases, indicating a cooling institutional appetite.
S&P 500 and US Dollar Index Show Mixed Signals
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) recently hit an intraday all-time high but encountered profit-taking pressure. A negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests weakening bullish momentum. Should the index fall below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 6,356, a deeper correction toward 6,147 is plausible. Conversely, support at moving averages may uphold bullish sentiment, potentially driving the index toward 6,700.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) failed to sustain gains above key moving averages, indicating selling on rallies. Bears aim to push the index down to 97.10 and then to critical support at 96.37. A break below this level could accelerate declines toward 95. Buyers must reclaim the 99 level to avert further downside and possibly target resistance at 100.50 and 102.
Altcoins Poised Near Key Resistance Levels
Several major altcoins demonstrate strength and approach significant overhead resistance:
- Ethereum (ETH): Trading near the 20-day EMA at $4,351, ETH faces crucial support at $4,060. A drop below this could trigger profit-taking and push prices toward $3,745 and $3,350. Conversely, breaking above $4,500 may set the stage for a retest of resistance at $4,956 and a potential rally to $5,500.
- XRP: Having surpassed its 20-day EMA at $2.90, XRP nears a downtrend line that sellers are expected to defend strongly. A breakout above this line would invalidate the bearish descending triangle pattern, potentially driving XRP to $3.40. Failure to break out could keep XRP range-bound, with increased selling if it falls below $2.73.
- BNB: After reclaiming support at $840 and surpassing $861, BNB may advance toward $900, where resistance is anticipated. A sustained breakout above $900 could propel prices to $1,000, while a failure may lead to declines toward $824 and $794.
- Solana (SOL): SOL bounced off its 20-day EMA at $201 and is testing the overhead resistance at $218. A successful breakout would complete a bullish ascending triangle, targeting $240 and possibly $260. Sellers must push SOL below its 50-day SMA at $189 to prevent this upward move.
Other Notable Cryptocurrencies
Dogecoin (DOGE) remains confined within a $0.21 to $0.26 range, with a slight bullish bias as the 20-day EMA turns up. A break above $0.29 could initiate a new rally toward $0.44, while a drop below $0.21 risks a slide to $0.16.
Cardano (ADA) is challenging the downtrend line in its descending channel pattern. A breakout could signal an end to the corrective phase and propel ADA toward $0.96 and $1.02. Failure to break resistance may lead to a continuation within the channel and increased downside risk.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) surpassed its overhead resistance zone between $49.88 and $51.19, completing a bullish ascending triangle pattern. This formation targets an upside move to approximately $64.25. However, a reversal back into the triangle and a break below the uptrend line could signal bearish pressure, potentially pulling prices toward $40.
Note: This analysis is not investment advice. Market conditions are subject to change, and investors should conduct their own research before making trading decisions.
FinOracleAI — Market View
Bitcoin’s short-term outlook appears constrained due to significant whale selling, which introduces supply pressure and limits upside momentum despite technical signals suggesting potential rallies toward $115,000 and beyond. The risk of a correction to $100,000 remains if selling intensifies. Meanwhile, select altcoins demonstrate promising setups to break resistance, which could attract renewed investor interest and drive sector-wide gains.
The S&P 500 and US Dollar Index exhibit mixed technical signals, with key support levels critical to maintaining bullish trends. Investors should monitor whale activity and institutional demand in cryptocurrencies closely, as these factors will heavily influence near-term price dynamics.
Impact: neutral
