Ethereum Price Retreats Amid US Economic Data and Equity Volatility
Ether (ETH) dropped 5.2% on Friday as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected US employment figures and a simultaneous reversal in equity markets. This decline led to approximately $90 million in liquidations of leveraged bullish ETH positions, raising questions about whether Ether will test the $4,000 support level or if the correction is primarily driven by broader macroeconomic concerns.
Derivatives Sentiment Reflects Caution Amid ETF Outflows
The monthly futures premium for ETH versus spot markets recently fell below the neutral 5% threshold, reaching its lowest point in two months. This decline signals subdued interest in leveraged bullish bets and coincides with four consecutive days of net outflows from US-listed Ethereum ETFs, totaling $505 million. Analysts suggest this may indicate backward-looking sentiment rather than an outright bearish forecast.
Robust Onchain Activity Underscores Network Strength
Despite derivative market caution, Ethereum’s onchain metrics remain strong. Transaction counts have surged 32% over the past month, outpacing competitors like Solana and BNB Chain, which experienced declines or modest growth. Active addresses on Ethereum increased by 7%, contrasting with significant contractions in Solana and BNB Chain user bases.
Total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum climbed 12% to $97.4 billion, with notable gains across projects including Pendle (+37%), Morpho (+36%), and Ethena (+32%). Ethereum maintains dominance with 60% of total TVL, or 67% including layer-2 solutions. The Base network now processes nearly as many transactions as BNB Chain, indicating growing ecosystem activity.
Options Market Shows Balanced Risk Appetite
Examining ETH options data reveals a delta skew of approximately 4%, below the neutral 6% threshold that would indicate elevated downside fear. Demand for call options has remained muted even during ETH’s recent 48% rally, reflecting professional traders’ cautious stance and reluctance to adopt fully bullish positions.
Stablecoin Flows Signal Moderate Risk Aversion Amid Economic Uncertainty
In the Chinese market, Tether (USDT) is trading at a 0.5% discount relative to the official USD/CNY exchange rate, suggesting moderate stablecoin selling pressure. This dynamic points to broader concerns about global economic growth rather than crypto-specific risk aversion, especially following a rise in US unemployment to 4.3% in August.
Outlook: Ethereum Positioned for Potential Upside
While recent price corrections and cautious derivatives sentiment reflect macroeconomic uncertainties, Ethereum’s strong onchain fundamentals and balanced options market conditions suggest the asset remains well-positioned to regain bullish momentum. Market participants should monitor macroeconomic developments and ETF flows closely to gauge near-term price trajectories.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The mixed signals from derivatives and ETF outflows indicate cautious trader positioning, while robust onchain activity supports Ethereum’s underlying strength. The moderate stablecoin discount reflects broader economic concerns rather than crypto-specific fear, tempering downside risk. Investors should watch US economic data and institutional flows for catalysts that could shift sentiment decisively.
Impact: neutral
