Bitcoin Options Expiry Sets Stage for Possible Rally Above $120,000
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $114,000 on Thursday, fueled by strong earnings from Oracle Corporation, a major AI infrastructure provider. This surge marked BTC’s highest price point in more than two weeks and raised expectations of further bullish momentum ahead of the critical $4.3 billion options expiry scheduled for September 12.
Options Market Dynamics Favor Bullish Scenarios
The current options landscape reveals $2.35 billion in put (sell) options open interest, overshadowing $1.93 billion in call (buy) contracts. Despite this dominance of puts, call options have gained ground following Bitcoin’s rebound from lows near $107,500 earlier in September—an uncommon pattern in typically optimistic crypto markets.
Deribit remains the primary venue for Bitcoin options, controlling approximately 75% of the weekly expiry volume, followed by OKX with 13%, and Bybit and Binance each holding about 5%. Deribit’s positioning is therefore critical for assessing Bitcoin’s potential to breach the $120,000 threshold in the near term.
Notably, bearish or neutral bets appear limited at higher strike prices: less than $125 million in put open interest exists at or above $114,000 on Deribit. In contrast, over $300 million in call options would activate if Bitcoin sustains prices above $113,000 through the expiry. This $175 million advantage among call holders could underpin further upward price movement.
Macroeconomic and Sector-Specific Factors Add Uncertainty
Oracle’s 36% stock price increase on Wednesday followed announcements of a $455 billion surge in future contracts, with a substantial portion tied to OpenAI. However, concerns have emerged about the long-term viability of AI-driven growth, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, which noted OpenAI accounts for $300 billion of Oracle’s backlog.
Industry observers have pointed to potential financial engineering within AI infrastructure providers. For instance, Nvidia benefits from recurring revenue by supplying equipment to Oracle, despite renting out its own AI data centers, suggesting a cyclical conversion of capital expenditures into revenue streams.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals remain mixed. A sharp downward revision in U.S. employment data has raised concerns about credit quality in large banks, though credit losses have remained minimal so far in 2025, according to Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala.
Price Thresholds Will Determine Options Outcome
If Bitcoin maintains above $112,000 at expiry, call open interest will exceed put open interest by $50 million, supporting neutral to bullish strategies. Conversely, a drop below $111,000 could give puts a $100 million edge. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price direction will hinge on last-minute market movements and prevailing macroeconomic factors.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The upcoming $4.3 billion Bitcoin options expiry presents a bullish tilt if BTC sustains above $113,000, supported by a notable call option advantage. However, macroeconomic uncertainties—particularly weak US employment figures and AI sector skepticism—pose downside risks that could temper momentum. Market participants should closely monitor BTC price action around the expiry and broader economic indicators, as these factors will likely dictate short-term volatility and directional bias.
Impact: positive
