Bitcoin Eyes Key Support Zone Amid September Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) has defied its historical seasonal weakness by gaining nearly 6% in September, approaching a significant supply zone between $115,600 and $117,300. A decisive close above this range could pave the way for new all-time highs. However, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and anticipated interest rate cuts, Bitcoin experienced a mild correction, dipping below $114,500 on Monday.
Technical Structure Suggests Critical Retest Between $111,000 and $113,000
Analysts point to the $111,000 to $113,000 range as a pivotal support level. This zone mirrors the breakout pattern seen in Q2 2024, when BTC consolidated just below $110,000 before surging above $120,000 in July. Maintaining this support is essential to uphold the current bullish trend, while a drop below could undermine the positive outlook.
The relative strength index (RSI) corroborates this perspective, having reclaimed the 50 level and now testing it as support—a historical precursor to renewed buying momentum.
On-Chain Data Highlights Strong Accumulation at Current Levels
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric reveals that approximately 5.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was accumulated between $110,000 and $113,000, marking this band as a significant accumulation zone. This suggests that a considerable base of investors perceives this price range as a long-term value area.
Supporting this, mid-sized holders—referred to as Shark wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC—have increased their holdings by nearly 1 million BTC since July 2024. Conversely, larger holders, including whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) and humpback wallets (≥10,000 BTC), have collectively reduced their BTC holdings by roughly 715,000 since early 2024.
This redistribution indicates that fresh market participants are absorbing supply released by larger holders, potentially marking a structural shift in market dynamics.
Analyst Insights and Market Outlook
Crypto analyst ShayanBTC emphasized the constructive outlook supported by both technical and miner behavior, stating, “The combination of a technical structure shift and miner accumulation provides a constructive outlook. As long as $112K holds, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to sustain momentum.”
With the FOMC meeting imminent, market participants will closely monitor Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $111,000–$113,000 support zone. A sustained rebound here could signal the last meaningful discount before Bitcoin attempts to breach previous highs.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investment decisions carry risk, and readers should conduct independent research.
FinOracleAI — Market View
Bitcoin’s current price action around the $111,000–$113,000 zone is critical for sustaining bullish momentum. The combination of technical support, significant accumulation indicated by the URPD metric, and shifting holder dynamics suggests this level may act as a strong foundation for further gains. However, the proximity of the FOMC meeting introduces event risk, and a failure to hold this range could trigger a deeper correction. Investors should watch for confirmation of support and follow post-FOMC market reaction closely.
Impact: positive
