Potential Impact of Bitcoin ETF Approval: Insights from Greeks.live
Speculations about the ETF approval’s potential effects on Bitcoin (BTC) have been widespread. Greeks.live, an options platform, provides insights into how the exchange-traded fund could influence the value of the leading cryptocurrency.
According to Greeks.live, the market has already factored in the potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF. As a result, it anticipates that the approval may not bring substantial returns for the asset or cause significant price movement. The platform bases its assessment on the minimal volatility observed in major-term implied volatilities (IVs) and the current Bitcoin price.
Implied volatility, indicating the market’s expectation of an asset’s future movement, plays a crucial role in this analysis. Despite the belief in a strong correlation between options IV and the Bitcoin ETF, there was a decrease rather than an increase in implied volatility on January 12. This decline, coupled with the overall low volatility, suggests that even with significant impending news, the impact on Bitcoin’s price may not be substantial.
SEC to Provide Approval Status for Bitcoin ETF Applicants Next Week
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reportedly set to inform asset managers seeking to launch a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF about the approval status of their applications as early as next week. This news has sparked excitement among the crypto community, as a Bitcoin ETF approval could open up new avenues for institutional investments in the leading cryptocurrency.
Major players like BlackRock and Fidelity are among those awaiting the SEC’s decision on their spot Bitcoin ETF applications. The prevailing sentiment is optimistic, with hopes for a positive outcome that could further fuel the ongoing bull run in the crypto market.
Trader Predicts Bitcoin’s Trajectory After Potential ETF Approval
DonAlt, a seasoned trader renowned for accurately predicting the year’s crypto breakout, now provides insights on Bitcoin’s optimal trajectory post-potential approval of spot market BTC exchange-traded fund applications (ETF).
DonAlt anticipates a “sell-the-news” reaction to the upcoming ETF announcement on January 10. However, he believes that the price of BTC is unlikely to drop significantly below $20,000 in the aftermath of the approval. He suggests that a prolonged consolidation period would be the most favorable scenario for Bitcoin after the potential ETF approval.
Greeks.live Suggests ETF Approval May Not Lead to Significant Returns for Bitcoin
Greeks.live suggests that the market has already priced in the potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF. As a result, it does not anticipate substantial returns for the asset or significant price movement as a result of the approval. The platform’s assessment is based on the minimal volatility observed in major-term implied volatilities (IVs) and the current Bitcoin price.
Implied volatility, which reflects the market’s expectation of an asset’s future movement, plays a crucial role in this analysis. Despite the belief in a strong correlation between options IV and the Bitcoin ETF, there was a decrease rather than an increase in implied volatility on January 12. This decline, coupled with the overall low volatility, suggests that the impact on Bitcoin’s price may not be substantial.
Goldman Sachs Predicts Bullish Year for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs
Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts substantial expansion in the cryptocurrency market, specifically highlighting the potential growth of Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Goldman managing director Mathew McDermott envisions a gradual evolution of the cryptocurrency landscape over the next year, dependent on regulatory approval.
McDermott cautions against expecting an immediate transformation in the crypto market post-ETF approval. However, he anticipates substantial growth in the crypto market in 2024. This optimism is driven by the increased integration of blockchain technology in commercial applications and traditional financial institutions’ growing involvement in the crypto space.
A focal point for McDermott is the development of tokenization marketplaces, which are predicted to gain significant traction among investors. This growth will be driven by the emergence of secondary liquidity on-chain, enabling market expansion.
Analyst comment
Positive news: The SEC is expected to provide approval status for Bitcoin ETF applicants next week, sparking excitement and optimism within the crypto community. This could open up new avenues for institutional investments in Bitcoin.
Negative/Neutral news: Greeks.live suggests that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF may not bring substantial returns for the asset or cause significant price movement. The market has already factored in the potential approval, and the minimal volatility observed in implied volatilities indicates that the impact may not be substantial.
Short analyst statement: The approval of a Bitcoin ETF could potentially open up new investment opportunities and fuel the ongoing bull run. However, the market may have already priced in the approval, leading to minimal impact on Bitcoin’s value.
