Bitcoin Rebounds Above $111,000 Amid Mixed Short-Term Signals
Bitcoin (BTC) edged higher to surpass $111,000 as it closed the weekly candle, showing tentative signs of recovery after recent price fluctuations influenced by US macroeconomic data. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated BTC/USD trading around $111,369, maintaining key support above $110,000.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the move as promising, noting the formation of a higher low and the importance of breaking through the $112,000 resistance to accelerate a bullish trend.
Critical Resistance and Potential Pullbacks
Despite the positive momentum, market sentiment remains divided. Popular trader Cipher X highlighted that if Bitcoin fails to sustain momentum above $112,000, a retracement toward $108,000 could materialize. Similarly, Crypto Tony warned that rejection near this level might trigger a deeper drop to around $100,000, a level some traders view as a logical bounce zone.
Technical analysis focusing on moving averages reinforces this outlook. Trader TurboBullCapital pointed to the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at approximately $115,035 and $101,760, respectively, as key levels to monitor. Losing support near $107,000 could shift the downside target toward the 200-day MA near $101,000.
Fibonacci Retracement Supports a 10% Downside Limit
On a longer timeframe, Fibonacci retracement levels provide context for potential downside risk. Historical patterns since late 2024 suggest Bitcoin tends to bottom near the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which currently aligns with the $100,000 mark. Trader ZYN noted that this indicates a worst-case scenario dip of roughly 10% before Bitcoin could resume a significant rally, possibly surging 50% above $150,000.
Some market theories propose that short sellers may be vulnerable to manipulation ahead of a substantial short squeeze, which could trigger a powerful upward move reminiscent of late 2024 price action.
While these analyses offer insight into potential price movements, all trading carries risk. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider market volatility when making decisions.
FinOracleAI — Market View
Bitcoin’s current price action near $111,000 reflects a cautious recovery with critical resistance at $112,000 serving as a pivotal point for near-term direction. The 10% downside limit suggested by Fibonacci retracement provides a defined risk boundary, which may help contain volatility. However, failure to breach resistance could prompt a pullback toward $100,000, testing investor confidence before any sustained rally.
Key risks include macroeconomic developments and market sentiment shifts that could undermine support levels. Close attention should be paid to volume and momentum indicators around the $112,000 resistance and $100,000 support zones to assess the strength of either a breakout or a correction.
Impact: neutral
