Bitcoin Dips Amid Historic US Jobs Data Revision
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable decline, dropping below $111,000, closely following a sharp downturn in the US stock market. This movement came after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised payroll data downward by a staggering 911,000 jobs—the largest adjustment in history.
The BLS’s benchmark revision for March 2025 revealed a reduction of 880,000 private sector jobs and 31,000 government jobs. Concurrently, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, while August job additions fell short at 22,000 compared to the expected 75,000.
Rising Recession Risks and Inflation Persist
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation remained steady at 2.9%, maintaining pressure on economic conditions and elevating recession concerns. Market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s response, with bond traders pricing in a strong likelihood—over 90%—of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Additional rate reductions may follow before the end of 2025, according to CME Group data.
Market analyst The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that despite ongoing inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve is expected to ease monetary policy due to labor market weakness, suggesting that asset holders could benefit from forthcoming policy shifts.
Historical Context Supports Potential Asset Rebound
Looking back to the 1990–1991 recession, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 8.25% to 3% even as inflation hovered near 4% and unemployment reached 6.8%. While stock markets initially declined by more than 20%, they rebounded by over 30% the following year as cheaper credit conditions fostered economic recovery.
Similarly, gold has surged approximately 40% year-to-date, with traders anticipating weaker labor market data ahead of the BLS revision. Bitcoin has also advanced more than 20% in 2025, suggesting that it may follow gold’s trajectory given their historically lagging correlation during periods of monetary easing.
Technical Analysis Signals Bitcoin’s Potential Upside
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern, indicating renewed bullish momentum. The cryptocurrency is targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level near $129,000, representing a potential upside of 12% to 15% from current prices.
Additionally, BTC remains above its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $108,500, reinforcing the presence of strong support. A decisive close above the $115,000 to $116,000 resistance zone could accelerate buying interest, potentially propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs and signaling the continuation of its bull cycle.
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading and investment decisions carry risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The recent downward revision of US jobs data introduces heightened recession fears, which, combined with persistent inflation, is driving expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This environment tends to favor risk assets like Bitcoin, which could benefit from looser monetary policy. Technical indicators support a potential rally toward $129,000, with strong support levels underpinning the current price.
However, risks remain from broader macroeconomic uncertainties and potential volatility in equity markets. Investors should monitor upcoming Fed communications and economic data releases closely, as these will be key drivers for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Impact: positive
