Bitcoin Bull Indicators Shift Bearish Despite Price Recovery to $116K
Bitcoin’s price modestly rebounded to $116,000 on Friday, yet key market indicators suggest a predominantly bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency. According to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, eight out of ten components of its Bull Score Index are currently signaling bearish trends, highlighting a deceleration in Bitcoin’s momentum.
Bull Score Index Reveals Cooling Momentum
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index aggregates ten metrics to assess Bitcoin’s market health. As of this week, only two indicators—Bitcoin demand growth and technical analysis signals—remain bullish. The demand growth metric has been positive since July, reflecting sustained market interest, while technical signals track standard price and volume indicators.
Conversely, metrics including the MVRV-Z score (market value to realized value), profit and loss index, bull-bear cycle indicator, inter-exchange flow pulse, network activity index, stablecoin liquidity, trader on-chain profit margin, and trader realized price are all bearish. These indicators collectively suggest decreasing profitability, increased asset movement to exchanges, and waning network activity.
Historical Context and Market Sentiment
The last instance when eight of ten Bull Score indicators turned bearish was in April, coinciding with Bitcoin’s slide to around $75,000. Earlier this year in July, the same proportion of indicators were bullish as Bitcoin reached a local high near $122,800.
Currently, the overall Bull Score Index has fluctuated between 20 and 30 this month, reflecting ongoing correction pressures. Complementing this, the CoinGlass Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI)—which analyzes nine metrics to determine bull market progression—registers at 74, indicating the market is approximately three-quarters through the current bull cycle. However, only one of 30 bull market peak indicators, the altcoin season index, has been triggered, suggesting the peak of this bull run is not imminent.
Bitcoin Lags Behind Peers and Traditional Assets
Market analysts observe that Bitcoin’s price performance has lagged behind altcoins, equities, and spot gold in recent weeks. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, noted that net buying momentum has slowed, with digital asset treasury acquisitions declining and centralized exchanges reporting low levels of new capital inflows. Investors appear to be favoring equity proxies over cryptocurrencies amid the typical seasonal headwinds for risk assets in September.
Fan remarked, “The short-term picture looks a bit more challenging, and we would prefer a more defensive stance consistent with the tough seasonal story with risk assets in general.”
Outlook and Speculative Perspectives
Some market participants interpret the current correction as a normal phase within an extended bull market. Crypto podcaster Tony Edward highlighted recovering global liquidity and suggested the bull cycle may continue into 2026, with a potential local top in Q4 2024 and a blowoff top in Q1 2026.
Bitcoin Price Update
Bitcoin briefly surpassed $116,000 during early Friday trading, marking its highest level in three weeks and standing just 6.8% below its all-time high. The current correction remains notably shallower than in previous market cycles.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The predominance of bearish signals in CryptoQuant’s Bull Score amid a modest price rebound indicates cautious near-term sentiment for Bitcoin. While demand growth and technical factors provide some support, the broad weakness across profitability, exchange flows, and network activity metrics suggest momentum is slowing. Key risks include potential further price corrections if selling pressure intensifies, particularly given seasonal headwinds in September.
Investors should monitor shifts in exchange flows, stablecoin liquidity, and on-chain profit margins for early signs of trend reversals. Additionally, the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins or traditional assets may influence capital flows in the near term.
Impact: Negative
