Heineken Expects Positive Net Revenue Growth in 2023
Heineken is set to release its 2023 financial results on Wednesday, and analysts are expecting positive net revenue organic growth for the year. The Dutch brewer is projected to report a growth rate of 5.7% for 2023, surpassing last year’s organic growth of 21%.
According to the company’s market consensus estimate, consolidated net revenue before exceptional items and amortization (BEIA) is expected to decline to €30.28 billion, compared to €34.64 billion reported the previous year. Heineken’s beer volumes are also anticipated to have decreased to 244.6 million hectoliters from the 2022 figure of 256.9 million hectoliters. The company-compiled market expectations suggest a 4.4% decline in organic volume growth.
The company is expected to reveal an operating profit BEIA of €4.46 billion for 2023, slightly lower than the €4.50 billion reported in the previous year. The Americas and Europe are predicted to be the main contributors, with expected profits of €1.54 billion and €1.30 billion, respectively. However, net profit is forecasted to decrease to €2.50 billion, down from €2.68 billion in the prior year, according to Heineken’s consensus estimate.
Investors are closely watching Heineken’s 2023 targets, which the company has guided to be in the stable to mid-single-digit range for operating profit BEIA growth.
One concern highlighted by Heineken’s Chief Executive Officer, Dolf van den Brink, is the slowing consumer demand in various markets, despite signs of easing price inflation. In the third-quarter update, he mentioned that the group’s “EverGreen” strategy, focused on cost control and growth rebalance, is gradually improving, albeit at a slower pace than expected. Van den Brink stated, “In half of our markets, volume trends are improving. Similarly, in just over half of our markets, we are gaining or holding market share.”
It is worth noting that Heineken declared a dividend of €1.73 per share last year, and investors will be interested to see if there will be any changes to this shareholder return policy.
*Disclaimer: This news article is based on the consensus estimates provided by Heineken and not on actual financial results.*
Analyst comment
Neutral news.
As an analyst, I expect the market to react cautiously to Heineken’s 2023 financial results. While there is projected positive net revenue growth and operating profit in the Americas and Europe, there are concerns about declining net revenue, beer volumes, and net profit. Investors will be interested to see if there are any changes to the dividend policy. Overall, the market may show mixed sentiment towards Heineken’s performance.
