Barclays Fourth-Quarter 2023 Results Preview
Pretax Profit: According to 10 analyst estimates, Barclays is expected to report a pretax profit of £238 million for the three months ending December 31. This is a significant decrease from the £1.31 billion reported in the same period the previous year and the £1.885 billion in the third quarter.
Total Income: The consensus among analysts is that Barclays’ total income for the fourth quarter will be £5.76 billion. This is slightly lower than the £5.80 billion reported in the same three-month period of 2022 and the £6.26 billion in the previous quarter.
What to Watch:
Investors will be closely monitoring the income generated by Barclays’ international division’s Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB). The consensus is that the income from the CIB for the last quarter of the year will be £2.67 billion.
The focus will also be on Barclays UK’s net interest margin following the bank’s downward revision of its 2023 guidance. Barclays’ common equity Tier 1 ratio is anticipated to be 13.9% at the end of the period.
Shareholders will be interested in Barclays’ cash distributions. Consensus estimates suggest that the bank will announce a £890 million share buyback and a final dividend of 5.8 pence per share. Analysts are also expecting the bank to update its capital-returns policy and provide concrete targets in its strategy update.
Analyst comment
Positive news: Barclays is set to release its fourth-quarter results along with its first capital markets day in over a decade, providing investors with an update on financial targets and strategy.
Neutral news: Pretax profit for the fourth quarter is expected to decrease significantly due to additional charges, while total income is expected to slightly decline. Barclays’ shares have declined in value over the past year.
Analyst’s view: The market may react cautiously to the lower profit and income figures, but the focus will be on insights into Barclays’ international division’s income and potential deposit costs and mortgage margins for 2024. Shareholders will be interested in cash distributions and updates on the capital-returns policy. Market sentiment may depend on the clarity provided on the payback period for expenses and the net effect on the bank’s cost base. Overall, the market may show mixed reactions to the results.
