Bitcoin’s Weekly RSI Signals Historic Bullish Momentum
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above $115,000 as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Immediate resistance lies between $117,000 and $118,000, and a decisive breakout could indicate a significant structural shift on longer time frames.
Technical analysis has fueled optimism recently. Crypto investor Jelle highlighted that the weekly stochastic relative strength index (RSI) has triggered its ninth bullish signal in this ongoing cycle. Historically, each of these signals has preceded an average rally of approximately 35%, which, if replicated, would propel Bitcoin toward the $155,000 range.
Cycle Patterns Suggest Even Higher Targets
Timothy Peterson, a Bitcoin network economist, remains skeptical of traditional chart-based analysis but acknowledges the predictive value of repeating cycle patterns. His model forecasts a potential rise to $200,000 within 170 days, assigning better than even odds to this outcome.
Short-Term Risks and Market Dynamics
Despite bullish technical indicators, near-term price action faces headwinds. Analyst Skew noted a concentration of new short-position liquidity around $116,000, characterizing this as the prevailing “consensus trade” ahead of the Fed decision. Skew warns that persistent supply and offloading during rallies suggest a top-heavy market potentially influenced by market maker activity rather than organic investor positioning.
Mixed Market Sentiment Amid Macro Factors
The broader market presents a divided outlook. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that eight out of ten Bitcoin bull market indicators have turned bearish, signaling waning momentum. However, some traders point to supportive macroeconomic factors. The U.S. Dollar Index is at a 15-year low, while equities and commodities have shown strength—S&P 500 has risen 12% year-to-date and gold has surged 40% in 2025.
RookieXBT suggests that this environment of liquidity growth and economic expansion may continue to favor risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, on-chain analysis by trader Darkfrost indicates that short-term holder whales have returned to profitability after defending the $108,000–$109,000 range earlier this month, a pattern previously associated with bullish rallies.
Outlook and Key Catalysts
With Bitcoin trading approximately 8% below its all-time high, the market stands at a critical juncture. Whether the recent bullish RSI signal will trigger another significant rally or if macroeconomic headwinds will suppress momentum largely depends on the outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting, which remains a key catalyst for price volatility.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing involve risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making decisions.
FinOracleAI — Market View
The recent stochastic RSI bullish crossover historically precedes substantial rallies, suggesting positive momentum for Bitcoin in the short term. However, significant liquidity concentrated in short positions near $116,000 and the upcoming FOMC decision introduce volatility risks. Investors should monitor price action around key resistance levels and the Federal Reserve’s policy signals closely, as these will likely dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Impact: positive
