Polymarket Pursues US Market Return with Ambitious $10 Billion Valuation
Blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket is preparing for a significant comeback in the US, potentially pushing its valuation to $10 billion amid growing investor enthusiasm for crypto and prediction platforms.
According to sources cited by Business Insider, Polymarket is exploring re-entry into the US market while seeking fresh capital that could more than triple its $1 billion valuation recorded in June. One investor reportedly valued the company as high as $10 billion.
In June, Polymarket raised $200 million in a funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, an early investor in OpenAI, Paxos, and Palantir. The platform allows users to trade on event outcomes via a decentralized system, eliminating the need for a centralized bookmaker.
Regulatory Developments Enable US Return
Polymarket’s US operations were halted in 2022 following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, the company’s acquisition of Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX in July may provide the regulatory framework necessary for its US relaunch.
In September, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to QCX, granting exemptions from certain federal reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan described this as effectively a “green light” for the platform to resume US operations.
Rival Platforms and Market Momentum
Polymarket’s resurgence occurs alongside gains by competitors such as Kalshi, which is reportedly approaching a $5 billion valuation following a $185 million raise led by Paradigm in June. Kalshi’s growth has been bolstered by a 2024 court ruling allowing it to offer political-event contracts, a decision the CFTC initially appealed but later dropped.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi experienced peak user activity during the 2024 US presidential election, with trading volumes and monthly active users surging. However, user engagement has since declined, with recent momentum shifting towards the National Football League season. Market analyst Tarek Mansour noted Kalshi processed $441 million in volume during NFL Week 1, equating it to the US election’s market impact.
The evolving regulatory landscape and increasing interest in blockchain-enabled prediction markets position Polymarket and its rivals for potential growth, though market dynamics remain sensitive to regulatory developments and user engagement trends.
FinOracleAI — Market View
Polymarket’s anticipated US relaunch backed by regulatory relief and substantial funding signals a positive near-term outlook for the platform and prediction markets broadly. The $10 billion valuation target reflects strong investor confidence fueled by expanding market adoption and favorable CFTC rulings. However, risks include potential regulatory shifts and the challenge of sustaining user engagement post-election cycles. Investors should monitor ongoing regulatory developments and trading volume trends, especially as NFL season activity may drive renewed interest.
Impact: positive
