Oil prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Monday amid persistent concerns over a looming demand slowdown, which largely offset fears of potential supply disruptions from new attacks in the Red Sea. The Yemen-based, Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for an attack on an oil tanker in the Red Sea, presenting little deescalation in geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
A growing conflict in the Middle East, especially in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, has been a key point of support for oil prices, especially as fighting in the Red Sea pointed to delayed oil deliveries to several parts of Asia and Europe. But gains in crude have been largely held back by concerns over sluggish demand, especially in the face of higher for longer U.S. interest rates and worsening economic conditions across the globe.
The International Energy Agency had last week warned of a demand slowdown in 2024, with the warning coming just as data showed the UK and Japan entering a recession. Futures expiring in April fell 0.7% to $82.91 a barrel, while Brent futures fell 0.7% to $77.91 a barrel by 20:22 ET (01:22 GMT). Both contracts rose about 2% in the prior week. Trading volumes are likely to be muted on Monday, on account of a U.S. market holiday.
While oil prices clocked two straight weeks of gains, they failed to make any major headway beyond a trading range established so far in 2024. Strength in the dollar, especially following strong U.S. inflation readings from last week, also weighed on crude. The greenback steadied in Asian trade on Monday. Stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer and producer inflation data released last week ramped up concerns that the Federal Reserve will have little impetus to cut interest rates early in 2024. This notion boosted the dollar. Higher rates also bode poorly for crude demand, given that they stifle economic activity. Other data released last week showed U.S. oil production remaining at record highs of over 13 million barrels per day. Strong U.S. production is widely expected to plug any supply shortfalls arising from Middle East disruptions or output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Analyst comment
Neutral news: Oil prices fell slightly due to concerns over a demand slowdown and potential supply disruptions. Growing conflicts in the Middle East and sluggish demand offset gains. Trading volumes may be low due to a U.S. market holiday. Oil prices have been held back by higher U.S. interest rates and worsening economic conditions globally. The strength of the dollar and strong U.S. production also weighed on crude prices. Market is expected to remain within the established trading range.
